Description: Market consistent valuations require path-dependent discounting for scenarios. IFRS 17's requirement to discount best-estimate cashflows using locked-in rates could give non-sensical results in many instances. This article describes a technique for calibrating each of the scenario's cashflows so that they can be discounted with other discount factors or curves without distorting the value of underlying options and guarantees.

Description: Read the April 2020 issue of The Modeling Platform, published by the Modeling Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: Producing a crystal-clear balance roll-forward on time, obtaining a fresh model output the first time or providing model results for your business partners with a tight turnaround all depend on one thing: how fast the model engine runs. Authors explored various reasons behind significant computational power consumption, and discussed different ways to speed the computational process such as in-force population compression, model use case consolidation, code simplification and streamlining, and infrastructure automation, etc.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to provide a method for calculating special contingency reserves for investment losses. The method is derived by first building a stochastic investment model and then utilizing its probabilistic structure. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1980, Vol. 32.

Description: Many seniors who own houses in the United States have most of their wealth in their houses. Home Equity Conversion Mortgages are designed to allow seniors to borrow money against their house. This paper describes a stochastic simulation approach used to estimate the amount of a level-payment annuity payable as long as the senior is alive and living in his/her home. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990, VOL. 2.

Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This study investigates whether simulation-based models can be used to predict liquidity risk for banks, which must comply with Basel III by January 2015. The paper looks at the process of developing a measurement framework using Black-Scholes and Merton’s asset-based models to measure liquidity risk.

Description: This paper introduces the symbolic valuation, a stochastic valuation which allows flexible interest rate and cash flow assumptions, and provides an illustration which values a simple SPDA product. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1992, Vol. 1.

Description: 2003 Valuation Actuary Symposium, San Diego, CA. In this Teaching Session the instructor discussed the importance of making sure the correct inferences were drawn from stochastic testing exercises. Topics included: 1. Applying the assumption of a normal distribution. 2. Drawing inferences about, and creating confidence intervals around, a population mean. 3. Drawing inferences about, and creating confidence intervals around, tail percentiles. 4. Certifying anticipated mortality under XXX in a mathematically concise way.

Description: Read the November 2019 issue of The Modeling Platform, published by the Modeling Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.